Ivo Sanader "has AIDS"

Serbian tabloid Kurir, a paper with a questionable reputation I must add, claims to know why Croatian prime minister Ivo Sanader quit his job without giving any explanation. Sanader "has AIDS". Kurir does not mention any sources, but refers to the treatment Sanader underwent in hospital, beginning August. Sanader, while cruising the Adriatic, urgently had go to a hospital, where he was eventually diagonalized with pneumonia. Earlier he was said (rather: we were told) to suffer from some dangerous contagious disease, then Legionnaires' disease, but in the end it was "just" pneumonia. Or not. Maybe this juggling with diseases is just a cover-up for AIDS...
Or maybe Kurir just fabricated this story.
In today's edition the paper wonders if Sanader is gay. However regrettable is would be if Sanader had AIDS, him being gay would be wonderful news because the Croatian gay community could use strong political backing.
Sanader was once asked on TV if the allusions that he was gay bothered him. He answered: "No, because those allusions are false". And then he added something that is of current interest. He claimed that the rumors he was gay came from right-wingers in the HDZ party (Sanader's party) and that he "threw them out of the party."
Although many in the HDZ deny there are left-wing and right-wing factions, it is generally felt that these days the right-wingers are tightening their grip on HDZ. Indications are, first of all, Sanader's resignation, almost two months ago. After that, hardliner Andrija Hebrang announced he will run for president. This week, the president of the Croatian parliament Luka Bebić (HDZ) announced his departure from politics. He spoke of "certain political forces" that want to destroy HDZ. These "forces" are known by the name "Lisica", meaning fox. It's all very vague and foggy, but what is clear is that the ruling HDZ is a snake-pit. I guess we'll find out in the not so distant future which HDZ-snake has the strongest jaws.

Sanader's reasons for stepping down

One and a half day after Croatian prime minister Sanader resigned we know as little about his reason as at the very beginning. Croatian society is taken hostage by Sanader's refusal to say why he stepped down. He said it was for "personal reasons", but immediately added that "thank God" he is not ill. So what is he? Tired? I guess so. But name me one prime minister or president who is not tired. Maybe he was politically worn out. Although he claimed to have achieved everything he wanted to achieve, the truth is that he leaves Croatia behind in a state of despair and in need of repair.
It was great that George Bush came to Zagreb and spoke warm words about the wonderful relationship between Croatia and the United States. It was heartwarming to see Sanader being greeted by his European colleagues in Brussels. It gave the impression that he was one of them, a member of the club. But in the end he isn't. Despite all the hot air about the leading role of Croatia in the region, tiny Slovenia has blocked Croatia's path to EU membership, for six months now. And the end is not in sight. Big dreams - and all dashed by a country the size of Latvia.
If Sanader had remained premier, Croatia would have held scheduled parliamentary elections (2011) as a non-member of the EU. Maybe Sanader could not stand this shame. Despite years of bragging and boasting about Croatia's progress and how important the EU is to Croatia (he wanted me to believe that Croatia is also very important for the EU), Croatia is nowhere. The budget deficit is gigantic, the economy half socialist, hidden unemployment enormous, corruption seems ineradicable.
A surprised journalist asked yesterday why he is leaving, after she (and none of us) understood what "personal reasons" he had. "I explained why," he answered arrogantly, "and I am not going to argue with you." That was it. He thanked the press for their cooperation (irony, if you ask me) and left.
In which country is this possible? Even Fidel Castro admitted he was too ill to lead Cuba. And Kim Jung Il pretends he is still in power, although he is virtually dead.
Meanwhile, everybody says everybody is speculating. But I am honestly surprised that so few realistic reasons were suggested. Croats love conspiracy theories, but Sanader's decision took everybody by surprise. No one has a clue.

Sanader's resignation

An overview of the reactions and consequences after Croatian prime minister Sanader announced his resignation today. Sanader also stepped down as president of the ruling HDZ party. He won a second term in office less than two years ago.
Main opposition leader Zoran Milanović (SDP) said that Croatia needs new elections. Ljubo Jurčić, a foremost economist and half-hearted SPD member, thinks that Sanader's resignation will lead to "tectonic changes" in the HDZ party as Sanader was "more than half of HDZ". Jurčić was mentioned as SPD candidate for prime minister prior to the 2008 general elections, but in the end Milanović thought he himself was the better candidate for the post. A post he eventually didn't get because Sanader managed to form a cabinet for the second time.
Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX plunged 4,5 percent after the press conference. Currently CROBEX is down 6,1 percent. Also down is Croatian GDP. The Croatian economy shrank with 6,7 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Current Minister of Family, Veterans and Intergenerational Solidarity Jadranka Kosor will succeed Sanadar if the Sabor (Croatian parliament) agrees. Already on Friday this week the Sabor will give or not give its vote of confidence and vote for Kosor as Croatia's first female president. According to the constitution a new government should be formed within 30 days. Friday's parliamentary session is likely to be no more than a formality since Sanader has already collected 83 supporters for the new government - a majority. HDZ also needs to find a new Minister of Eduction, as current minister Dragan Primorac decided to resign.

Prime minister Ivo Sanader steps down

Update: Asked for the reason of his resignation, Sanader stated that "I can't say that my resignation is not related to those problems", referring to the Slovenian blockade of Croatia's negotiations with the European Union.

I turned on the TV to watch the tennis match between Roger Federer and Ivo Karlović on HRT2. Match of the year, the commentator told us yesterday. Instead, the news of the day - and the year maybe - is that Ivo Sanader, Croatia's prime minister, announced half an hour ago to step down. Immediately, as of today, for "personal reasons" which we don't know except that is is "not a disease".
It was widely thought that Sanader would have a great change of succeeding incumbent Croatian president Stipe Mesić. Sanader himself revealed last year that he had the ambition to become president of Croatia, but today he said he won't be a candidate. Not for president, nor any other political function, not in Zagreb nor in Brussels. According to Sanader he resigns because he achieved what he wanted to achieve. "I am leaving satisfied, because the strategic aims are realized. Croatia has become a member of NATO, the UN Security Council and is on the threshold of the EU." We can forgive him his misplaced optimism about his political legacy on his last day, but the truth is that the threshold has turned into an almost impassable mountain range.
Sanader's successor is most probably going to be Jadranka Kosor. If chosen, she will be the first female Croatian prime minister.
Later more...

Smear campaigns

I woke up this morning with Croatian Radio 1 playing Fleetwood Mac's "Little lies". A little later an angry sounding man started to talk about some American of Croatian descent who's all the time trying to blacken Croatia in the foreign press. This frustrated American-Croatian unsuccessfully tried to buy some real estate and directed his anger against Croatia by writing about corruption in our beautiful homeland. Or something like that, I was half asleep.
Now I understand why the HR1 (Hrvatski radio - prvi program) speaker was so upset. The Wall Street Journal Europa featured an unfavorable article about Croatia. A few quotes:
"Croatia remains wracked by corruption, smuggling and organized crime. If it is a model for the Balkans, then the whole region is condemned to failure."
"Given Croatia's dismal performance, it's hard to see why it deserves the EU's praise. In Croatia, it has become quite dangerous for journalists, political opponents and entrepreneurs to raise the issue of political corruption."
"Instead of continuing to send cash, it might be a better idea for the EU to send judges and prosecutors who can assist in strengthening the rule of law and an independent judiciary."
"[T]he EU now risks importing the treacherous Balkan Route and its trappings of organized crime and corruption into the world's largest trading block."
What should I say about this? It's probably true. As far as I can understand (my Croatian is not fluent) something is wrong with the political culture here. You can see it in the details. Yesterday, prime minister Ivo Sanader refused to answer questions from MP's, for example, how many students actually pay a tuition fee. Instead he congratulated the opposition with its miserable elections results. In Britain Sanader's refusal the play the democratic game would be called contempt of parliament, but in Croatia all eyes are focused on the second round of the local elections (31 May).
The good news is that Natasha Srdoc, author of the WSJ article, is still around. She runs the moribund Adriatic Institute for Public Policy, which offers little more than links to some (mostly old) newspaper articles written by others. In a half-socialist country like Croatia the Adriatic Institute could promote the free market, liberty, free trade and so on. It could take a stance against the "let me study forever at your expense" students that block the faculties. It could tell ordinary Croatian consumers that they pay way too much for everyday products because of the unholy alliance between the government and (big) businesses. It could...
Let me end with a positive note. "President Mahinda Rajapaksa met Croatian President Stjepan Mesic on the sidelines of the Group of Eleven (G-11) Meeting at the Dead Sea in Jordan last Saturday. The two leaders agreed to further consolidate economic cooperation between Sri Lanka and Croatia. They agreed that much potential exists for cooperation in the fields of port development and shipbuilding. They also referred to the long-standing bilateral relations existing between the two countries emanating from the friendly relations established between Sri Lanka and former Yugoslavia within the framework of the Non-Aligned Movement. They pledged their commitment to expand these historic relations into new areas of cooperation in the future." I know a "new area": a Sri Lankan restaurant in Zagreb. Spice us up!

War crimes and a war of words

Branimir Glavaš, a right wing politician and former general, has been sentenced to ten years in jail for committing war crimes against Serbian civilians in 1991 in his home town Osijek. As a member of parliament, Glavaš still enjoys parliamentary immunity, so he could not be arrested and brought to jail. It is expected that the Croatian parliament will lift Glavaš immunity today, but the convict decided not to wait for that moment. He fled to Bosnia, his second homeland of which he is a national too.
The sentencing of Glavaš (image source) came a week before the local elections. Glavaš enjoys some measure of popularity and the ruling HDZ party is afraid that his sympathizers will turn their anger about the conviction of their war hero against the HDZ. Prime minister Ivo Sanadar therefore said that the Supreme Court joined the election campaign. The president of the court reacted by saying that Sanader has crossed the line between politics and judiciary, a line he is not allowed to cross.
Branimir Glavaš has launched, from Bosnia, his own campaign against Sanadar. He called him a "monster that gave away everything we fought for". Glavaš's supporters in Bosnia burned HDZ flags. How popular the HDZ is in Bosnia, is quite relevant for politics in Croatia. Croats in Bosnia constitute a distinct electoral constituency, and they have voted massively for HDZ so far.
Glavaš's own party, the Croatian Democratic Assembly of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB) is strong in Osijek, but no national factor. HDSSB president Vladimir Šišljagić, a former officer in the Jugoslav National Army, announced a "war of exhaustion" against Ivo Sanadar. Another high ranking HDSSB mocked Sanader's business activities in Austria (from 1987 to 1991) while Croatia was at war: "I would recommend Sanader not to speak about war veterans, because he was filming porno movies in Austria while we were defending Croatia."
The political war is far from over. On 17 May, when local elections are being held, the first battle will take place.

How Sanader stole Christmas

Croatia has a budget deficit, a trade deficit and a huge foreign debt (33 billion euro's in 2007). The debts grow year by year, and Croatia's population shrinks year by year. A disaster in the making. The unsound financial situation means that Croatia is an easy victim of the international financial crisis. Therefore, prime minister Sanader announced that the government will tighten the belt. All Christmas lunches, presents and bonuses for government officials and state owned companies were cancelled.
You would expect public support for this move, but no. Instead, Sanader was portrayed in the media and on the internet as the man who stole Christmas. The government's public relations office thought this bad for Sanader's image and announced that the government "did not ban children's gifts and Christmas bonuses". It added that "internet portals and message boards depicted the government's clear and unambiguous decision falsely and tendentiously".
I am sure the public relations office is right, although the office seems to employ people steeped in communist rhetoric.